Ball outcome sequences

Every round is a single ball settled to one of 15 event codes. Below: the outcome distribution, and the transition matrix — what tends to follow what — tested for any exploitable sequence.

Balls analysed

19,426

Scoring balls

90%

17,424 balls

Wickets

5.7%

1,098 balls

Extras

4.7%

904 balls

Outcome distribution

Frequency of each ball event (green = runs, red = wicket, amber = extra). It is a fixed template — the same shape every session.

Outcome	Type	Balls	Share
0 Runs	Run	7,099	36.5%
1 Run	Run	5,955	30.7%
4 Runs	Run	2,368	12.2%
2 Runs	Run	1,029	5.3%
6 Runs	Run	926	4.8%
Caught	Wicket	679	3.5%
Wide	Extra	617	3.2%
Bowled	Wicket	227	1.2%
Leg Bye	Extra	148	0.8%
LBW	Wicket	126	0.6%
No Ball	Extra	82	0.4%
Bye	Extra	57	0.3%
3 Runs	Run	47	0.2%
Run Out	Wicket	42	0.2%
Stumped	Wicket	24	0.1%

Next-ball transition — what follows what

Probability that the next ball is Run / Wicket / Extra given the current ball, with the deviation from the base rate. Green = more likely than random, red = less.

current ↓ / next →	Run base 89.7%	Wicket base 5.7%	Extra base 4.7%
Run	89.7% +0.0 pp	5.7% +0.1 pp	4.6% -0.1 pp
Wicket	89.3% -0.3 pp	5.1% -0.6 pp	5.6% +0.9 pp
Extra	89.9% +0.2 pp	5.1% -0.6 pp	5.0% +0.3 pp

No exploitable patternLargest deviation from the base rate is 0.9 pp — each ball is statistically independent of the last; the sequence carries no edge.

19,426 balls · 06 Aug 2026, 08:15 pm IST — 26 Aug 2026, 11:25 am IST · auto-updates as balls settle.