Tables247/Data
Analysis

5Five Cricket · cricketv3

First over & total → winner

Australia vs India, 5 overs a side. Team 1 bats first and sets the target; Team 2 chases. Runs in the opening over and the first-innings total each strongly predict who wins — the grid below combines them.

Rounds analysed
527
Team 1 wins (bats first)
47%
246 of 527
Team 2 wins (chases)
53%
slight chase edge
Data through
25 Aug 2026, 09:37 am IST
auto-refreshed ~2 min
1st-over runs → Team 1 win rate
Runs the team batting first scores in over 1, vs how often they go on to win. Dashed line = overall base rate.
1st-over runsRoundsTeam 1 win %
0-413 23%
5-999 29%
10-14199 43%
15-19154 53%
20-2444 75%
25-296 83%
30-341 100%
First-innings total → Team 1 win rate
The target Team 1 posts across 5 overs, vs how often they defend it. Near-deterministic at the extremes.
First-innings totalRoundsTeam 1 win %
30-391 0%
40-495 0%
50-5978 3%
60-69210 32%
70-79175 71%
80-8957 89%
90-991 100%
Combined predictor — 1st over × first-innings total
Team 1 win % for each combination of opening-over runs (rows) and first-innings total (columns). Greener = Team 1 more likely; each cell shows its sample size. Read off your two numbers to get the historical outcome.
1st over ↓ / Total →30+40+50+60+70+80+90+
0-4·0%
n=1
14%
n=7
50%
n=4
0%
n=1
··
5-90%
n=1
·0%
n=24
26%
n=47
55%
n=20
86%
n=7
·
10-14·0%
n=3
3%
n=30
29%
n=85
69%
n=65
94%
n=16
·
15-19·0%
n=1
0%
n=14
34%
n=56
74%
n=61
82%
n=22
·
20-24··0%
n=2
44%
n=9
83%
n=23
100%
n=9
100%
n=1
25-29···67%
n=3
·100%
n=3
·
30-34····100%
n=1
··
Team 2 winsTeam 1 winsback-tested on 527 rounds