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Analysis
5Five Cricket · cricketv3
First over & total → winner
Australia vs India, 5 overs a side. Team 1 bats first and sets the target; Team 2 chases. Runs in the opening over and the first-innings total each strongly predict who wins — the grid below combines them.
Rounds analysed
527
Team 1 wins (bats first)
47%
246 of 527
Team 2 wins (chases)
53%
slight chase edge
Data through
25 Aug 2026, 09:37 am IST
auto-refreshed ~2 min
1st-over runs → Team 1 win rate
Runs the team batting first scores in over 1, vs how often they go on to win. Dashed line = overall base rate.
| 1st-over runs | Rounds | Team 1 win % |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 13 | 23% |
| 5-9 | 99 | 29% |
| 10-14 | 199 | 43% |
| 15-19 | 154 | 53% |
| 20-24 | 44 | 75% |
| 25-29 | 6 | 83% |
| 30-34 | 1 | 100% |
First-innings total → Team 1 win rate
The target Team 1 posts across 5 overs, vs how often they defend it. Near-deterministic at the extremes.
| First-innings total | Rounds | Team 1 win % |
|---|---|---|
| 30-39 | 1 | 0% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 0% |
| 50-59 | 78 | 3% |
| 60-69 | 210 | 32% |
| 70-79 | 175 | 71% |
| 80-89 | 57 | 89% |
| 90-99 | 1 | 100% |
Combined predictor — 1st over × first-innings total
Team 1 win % for each combination of opening-over runs (rows) and first-innings total (columns). Greener = Team 1 more likely; each cell shows its sample size. Read off your two numbers to get the historical outcome.
| 1st over ↓ / Total → | 30+ | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | · | 0% n=1 | 14% n=7 | 50% n=4 | 0% n=1 | · | · |
| 5-9 | 0% n=1 | · | 0% n=24 | 26% n=47 | 55% n=20 | 86% n=7 | · |
| 10-14 | · | 0% n=3 | 3% n=30 | 29% n=85 | 69% n=65 | 94% n=16 | · |
| 15-19 | · | 0% n=1 | 0% n=14 | 34% n=56 | 74% n=61 | 82% n=22 | · |
| 20-24 | · | · | 0% n=2 | 44% n=9 | 83% n=23 | 100% n=9 | 100% n=1 |
| 25-29 | · | · | · | 67% n=3 | · | 100% n=3 | · |
| 30-34 | · | · | · | · | 100% n=1 | · | · |
Team 2 winsTeam 1 winsback-tested on 527 rounds